On The Joe Rogan Experience episode 2578, Calley Means described a metabolic emergency in American kids. He overstated a few numbers. The verified ones are still a five-alarm fire.
Here are the numbers that hold up, with the source for each, and the one lever every family controls.
Obesity: One in five kids now has obesity.
CDC data for 2021 to 2023 put obesity at 21.1% of US children and teens ages 2 to 19. That is a record high and roughly four times the 5.2% measured about 50 years ago.
| 2021 to 2023 | 21.1% |
|---|---|
| About 50 years ago | 5.2% |
Source: CDC NCHS Health E-Stat, 2024
Prediabetes: More than 1 in 4 teens has prediabetes.
Liu and colleagues reported in JAMA Pediatrics that 28.2% of US teens ages 12 to 19 had prediabetes, more than double the 11.6% of about two decades earlier.
| Ages | 12 to 19 |
|---|---|
| Two decades earlier | 11.6% |
Source: Liu et al., JAMA Pediatrics 2022
What one donut breakfast does inside the body
When a high-sugar breakfast is digested, glucose floods into the blood and the pancreas releases insulin. In healthy people, skeletal muscle is the main place that glucose goes: in insulin clamp studies, 70 to 90% of glucose disposal ends up stored as muscle glycogen (Jensen et al., 2011).
Muscle is the biggest tank you have. The body stores roughly 500 g of glycogen in skeletal muscle versus about 100 g in the liver, so muscle holds about five times as much (Jensen et al., 2011).
When muscle stops responding well to insulin, glucose stays high and the pancreas has to work harder. Skeletal muscle insulin resistance is considered the primary defect in type 2 diabetes (DeFronzo and Tripathy, Diabetes Care 2009).
The good news: contracting muscle pulls glucose in through the GLUT4 transporter by a pathway that does not need insulin, and training increases how much GLUT4 muscle makes (Richter and Hargreaves, Physiological Reviews 2013). That is why a walk, a set of squats or a short sprint after meals helps.
If nothing changes: Youth type 2 diabetes could rise 673%.
Projections from the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth team, published in Diabetes Care in 2023, show youth type 2 diabetes rising from about 28,000 cases in 2017 to about 220,000 by 2060 if current trends hold. That is a 673% increase.
| 2017 | About 28,000 |
|---|---|
| 2060 projection | About 220,000 |
Source: Diabetes Care 2023 (SEARCH projections)
Early-onset cancer: 14 cancers are rising in people under 50.
An NIH and National Cancer Institute analysis in Cancer Discovery (2025) tracked 33 cancer types from 2010 to 2019 and found 14 rising in people under 50. Honest caveat: overall early-onset cancer rates and deaths did not rise. The increase is concentrated in specific types.
| Tracked | 33 types, 2010 to 2019 |
|---|---|
| Overall rate | Did not rise |
| Deaths | Did not rise |
Source: NIH/NCI, Cancer Discovery 2025
The lever you control: The fix starts with muscle.
Skeletal muscle handles 70 to 90% of insulin-driven glucose disposal in clamp studies (Jensen, 2011). A 2022 review by Buffey and colleagues found short walking breaks after meals lower the post-meal blood sugar spike. Building muscle and moving after eating are levers every kid and parent controls.
Sources: Jensen 2011, Front Physiol; Buffey 2022, Sports Med. Not medical advice.
The bottom line
Policy will take years. Muscle, movement and real food work now. Not medical advice: talk to your pediatrician about your child's specific risk.
The full JRE 2578 series
- Calley Means on Joe Rogan: 8 Numbers, Fact-Checked (JRE 2578)
- Glyphosate in Oats, Chickpeas and Lentils: What the Testing Shows and the Organic Swap That Works
- How Glyphosate Got Legal Immunity in 4 Moves: Roundup Lawsuits After Monsanto v. Durnell
- A US School Day by the Numbers: Sugar, Protein and the USDA School Meal Rules
- The Kids' Metabolic Emergency: Childhood Obesity, Prediabetes and Type 2 Diabetes Statistics (you are here)
- Follow the Money: What Public Lobbying Filings Show About 2025's Record Year
- What Needs to Happen: 3 System Fixes From Calley Means and 3 Levers You Control
Follow @ninjathletes on Instagram for the full carousel and reels, and find more evidence-based athlete optimization tips at ninjathlete.com.
Sources
- CDC National Center for Health Statistics. Health E-Stat: Prevalence of obesity among children and adolescents, 2021-2023. 2024.
- Liu J, et al. Trends in Prediabetes Among Youths in the US, 1999-2018. JAMA Pediatrics, 2022. doi.org/10.1001/jamapediatrics.2022.0077
- Tönnies T, et al. Projections of Type 1 and Type 2 Diabetes Burden in the US Population Aged Under 20 Years Through 2060. Diabetes Care, 2023. doi.org/10.2337/dc22-0945
- NIH National Cancer Institute. Early-onset cancer incidence trends, Cancer Discovery, 2025.
- Jensen J, et al. The role of skeletal muscle glycogen breakdown for regulation of insulin sensitivity by exercise. Frontiers in Physiology, 2011. doi.org/10.3389/fphys.2011.00112
- Buffey AJ, et al. The Acute Effects of Interrupting Prolonged Sitting Time in Adults with Standing and Light-Intensity Walking on Biomarkers of Cardiometabolic Health. Sports Medicine, 2022. doi.org/10.1007/s40279-022-01649-4
- DeFronzo RA, Tripathy D. Skeletal muscle insulin resistance is the primary defect in type 2 diabetes. Diabetes Care, 2009. doi.org/10.2337/dc09-S302
- Richter EA, Hargreaves M. Exercise, GLUT4, and skeletal muscle glucose uptake. Physiological Reviews, 2013. doi.org/10.1152/physrev.00038.2012
Source episode: The Joe Rogan Experience, episode 2578, with Calley Means. Claims attributed to Calley Means are his and are labeled as such. Photos inside the slides are AI-generated illustrations; the numbers are from the sources listed. This article is educational and is not medical or legal advice.
