Calley Means left his role advising on health policy and sat down with Joe Rogan on The Joe Rogan Experience, episode 2578. Over the conversation he cited a string of numbers about kids' health, food, farm chemicals and lobbying money.
We pulled the primary source behind eight of them. Some held up exactly. Some were rounded up. A few were overstated. Below is every slide from our NinjAthlete Dispatch carousel, with the real number, the verdict and the source, so you can check our work.
How we checked: Some held. Some didn't.
We checked each claim against CDC, JAMA, court rulings and government data. Where he rounded up, we print the real number. Where he was right, we say so.
Method: primary sources only, no secondhand summaries.
Teen prediabetes is real. It just isn't 38%.
The JAMA Pediatrics analysis of national survey data put teen prediabetes at 28.2%, and other estimates run as high as 32.7%. That is roughly one in three, not 38%. The more important point is the trend: about two decades earlier the rate was 11.6%.
| Means said | 38% |
|---|---|
| The record | 28.2% to 32.7% |
| 20 years ago | 11.6% |
| Verdict | OVERSTATED |
Sources: Liu et al., JAMA Pediatrics 2022; CDC 2023 summary
Ultra-processed food: Two-thirds of kids' calories are ultra-processed.
Wang and colleagues tracked 33,795 children and teens ages 2 to 19 in national survey data. The share of calories from ultra-processed foods rose from 61% in 1999 to 67%. Means said 70%, which is close.
| Means said | 70% |
|---|---|
| The record | 67% |
| In 1999 | 61% |
| Verdict | CLOSE |
Source: Wang et al., JAMA 2021
Glyphosate: The US sprays a fifth of the world's glyphosate.
Benbrook's 2016 analysis in Environmental Sciences Europe covered glyphosate use from 1974 to 2014. The United States accounted for about 19% of global use while holding roughly 4% of the world's population. Means said about 20%, so this one holds.
| Means said | About 20% |
|---|---|
| The record | 19% |
| US share of people | About 4% |
| Verdict | HOLDS |
Source: Benbrook, Environmental Sciences Europe 2016
Iowa cancer: Iowa's cancer rate is high. Not the world's highest.
Iowa ranks second in the US for cancer incidence, behind Kentucky, and it is one of the few states where rates are still rising. It is not the highest in the world. One detail worth knowing: Iowa farmers had about 13% fewer cancers than the state overall.
| Means said | World's highest |
|---|---|
| The record | #2 in the US |
| Number one | Kentucky |
| Verdict | OVERSTATED |
Source: Iowa Cancer Registry, Cancer in Iowa 2026
The right to sue: The Supreme Court closed the courthouse door.
In Monsanto Co. v. Durnell, decided June 25, 2026, the Supreme Court ruled 7 to 2 that federal pesticide law blocks state failure-to-warn lawsuits over the Roundup label. The Court did not decide whether glyphosate causes cancer.
| Means said | Court sided with Bayer |
|---|---|
| Decided | June 25, 2026 |
| Ruled on cancer | No |
| Verdict | HOLDS |
Source: Monsanto Co. v. Durnell, June 25, 2026
Soda on food stamps: Soda is leaving SNAP. Slower than he said.
According to USDA data reported by Civil Eats, 22 states had received waivers to remove soda from SNAP purchases, with 8 more waivers pending as of March 2026. That is close to 30, but not there yet.
| Means said | About 30 states |
|---|---|
| The record | 22 states |
| In the pipeline | 8 more waivers |
| Verdict | OVERSTATED |
Source: USDA via Civil Eats, March 2026
Teen vaping: Few teens vape. The flavors still hook them.
The FDA's 2025 National Youth Tobacco Survey found 7.1% of high school students currently vape. That is far from half. But among teens who do vape, 89% use flavored products, with fruit the most popular. The flavor point holds.
| Means said | 50% of friends |
|---|---|
| The record | 7.1% use now |
| Of those, flavored | 89% |
| Verdict | PERCEPTION, NOT USE |
Source: FDA, 2025 National Youth Tobacco Survey
Follow the money: One lobbying firm. $88.1 million.
Ballard Partners reported a record $88.1 million in federal lobbying revenue for 2025, then $63.5 million in the first half of 2026 alone. Means said $98 million. Close, and the trend supports his point.
| Means said | $98M in 2026 |
|---|---|
| The record | $88.1M in 2025 |
| First half 2026 | $63.5M |
| Verdict | CLOSE |
Source: OpenSecrets; Bloomberg Government
The real point: No need to inflate.
Corrected numbers still make the case. About 1 in 5 US kids has obesity, and youth type 2 diabetes is projected to rise 673% by 2060 if current trends hold. Accurate numbers are more persuasive than inflated ones, because they survive scrutiny.
Sources: CDC NCHS 2024; Diabetes Care 2023
The bottom line
The takeaway is simple. Calley Means is pointing at real problems, and in most cases the verified data is close to what he said. Where he rounded up, the corrected numbers are still alarming. The next five articles in this series go deeper on glyphosate, school food, kids' metabolic health, lobbying money and what needs to happen next.
The full JRE 2578 series
- Calley Means on Joe Rogan: 8 Numbers, Fact-Checked (JRE 2578) (you are here)
- Glyphosate in Oats, Chickpeas and Lentils: What the Testing Shows and the Organic Swap That Works
- How Glyphosate Got Legal Immunity in 4 Moves: Roundup Lawsuits After Monsanto v. Durnell
- A US School Day by the Numbers: Sugar, Protein and the USDA School Meal Rules
- The Kids' Metabolic Emergency: Childhood Obesity, Prediabetes and Type 2 Diabetes Statistics
- Follow the Money: What Public Lobbying Filings Show About 2025's Record Year
- What Needs to Happen: 3 System Fixes From Calley Means and 3 Levers You Control
Follow @ninjathletes on Instagram for the full carousel and reels, and find more evidence-based athlete optimization tips at ninjathlete.com.
Sources
- Liu J, et al. Trends in Prediabetes Among Youths in the US, 1999-2018. JAMA Pediatrics, 2022. doi.org/10.1001/jamapediatrics.2022.0077
- Wang L, et al. Trends in Consumption of Ultraprocessed Foods Among US Youths Aged 2-19 Years, 1999-2018. JAMA, 2021. doi.org/10.1001/jama.2021.10238
- Benbrook CM. Trends in glyphosate herbicide use in the United States and globally. Environmental Sciences Europe, 2016. doi.org/10.1186/s12302-016-0070-0
- Iowa Cancer Registry. Cancer in Iowa 2026.
- Monsanto Co. v. Durnell, US Supreme Court, decided June 25, 2026.
- USDA SNAP food restriction waivers, reported by Civil Eats, March 2026.
- FDA and CDC. 2025 National Youth Tobacco Survey.
- OpenSecrets lobbying data; Bloomberg Government. www.opensecrets.org/federal-lobbying
- CDC NCHS Health E-Stat, childhood obesity, 2024.
- Tönnies T, et al. Projections of Type 1 and Type 2 Diabetes Burden in the US Population Aged Under 20 Years Through 2060. Diabetes Care, 2023. doi.org/10.2337/dc22-0945
Source episode: The Joe Rogan Experience, episode 2578, with Calley Means. Claims attributed to Calley Means are his and are labeled as such. Photos inside the slides are AI-generated illustrations; the numbers are from the sources listed. This article is educational and is not medical or legal advice.
